Monday, January 14, 2008


For years now I have had a simple formula for making money during football season. Bet the Colts during the regular season, and against them during the playoffs. Why? Because Peyton Manning stinks when it counts. Some of you, myself included, were fooled by last year's title run against crummy Chiefs and Bears teams that only proved the exception to the rule. This is the third time that the Colts have had a first round bye, and the third time that they have choked as huge favorites in their first game. Every year we hear about how this Indy team is different; the run defense is beefed up, Manning is sharper than ever, he has more weapons.....but when he's had to take the ball and drive his team to a win when it's counted....the outcome has almost always been a loss. What' a more familiar sight during the playoffs, a Colts win or Manning throwing a terrible interception in scoring territory then immediately looking over to his bench, making some arm gesticulations implying his receiver ran the wrong route, then throwing his arms up in pouty defeat?

I'm tired of this dude. Ten years, that's a long time to keep making the same mistakes and failing to get it done. The anomaly last year was Brady not getting it done, even with far inferior talent. If he had any of the 3 wrs he has this year, they would've beaten the Colts and rolled the Bears. Guess we don't have to worry about the "only team that could possibly beat the Pats."

Despite a crazy college season, I would like to establish 4 rules for betting football forever more:
1: NFL week 1. We haven't seen anybody play yet. We thought the Pats would be good, but weren't sure how good. How's about 7 pts against the Jets? That's Secretariat in retrospect. Oddsmakers don't go crazy week 1 because of the uncertainty, and this provides a lot of easy pickins.
2: NFL week 17. Some teams are out, and some teams are definitely in. Others need a win and they all mix together into a bunch of uncertainly low spreads again, providing easy opportunities such as the Titans/Colts.
3: Bowl Underdogs: 7 pt. dogs in the pre-New Year's Bowls were 36-17 the last 2 years before this one. Navy, UCLA, S. Miss., E. Carolina, C. Mich. and FSU all covered (2 out 5 big dogs covered post Jan. 1).
4: Always bet against Peyton Manning in a game that counts! Going back to his UT days, that's 13 years of consistent earnings. At least next year we won't have to be bombarded by his dumb commercials.

I shouldn't complain. Things were looking grim after Ryan Grant pulled his best Thurman Thomas impersonation and coughed up 2 of the first 4 plays for the Pack. But the Seahawks really do stink, and Favre made good on my previous assertion that he was a cold weather quarterback by rolling up 42 points. 1-1 this weekend.

Watch for huge spreads next weekend as both home teams will be playing lower seeds than expected. I'll post the lines later this week. I'm getting a 1-4 prop on the Pats winning though, and as I'm one of the few Americans left who can actually afford a 2nd mortgage, I might take one out.

Now for the real fun. Banks, beginning with Citi, will announce their "earnings" over the next 3 weeks. In an effort to be proactive, they released on Sunday a potential $24 billion writedown and the possibility of 20,000 layoffs. Hey, thanks for letting us know whole 2 days ahead of time! I'm sure their accountants began looking over the books Friday night and by Sunday said, "hey wait a minute, these loans don't look so good, we better write some of this down!" Both the NY gov't and the SEC are looking into Wall St., with many potential lawsuits ahead. Cleveland and Baltimore are suing at least 21 separate banks over false lending practices. Again, I advise looking at your mutual fund holdings very hard and getting out of those that have large financial exposure.

No comments: