Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Inside Information

Would be good to have, wouldn't it? I mean, with Wall St. profits exceeding all expectations again, or still benefiting from the "not quite as bad as it could've been" reporting, the S&P will cross 1100 today and the Dow has exceeded 10K (again). As David Weidner points out in today's Marketwatch column (sometimes he gets it right), we continue to be the suckers in the great Wall St. Ponzi scheme, "what Wall Street calls the 'dumb money' never fail to live up to our reputation as suckers, chumps and easy marks. We keep putting our money in the market, diversifying and looking at the fundamentals of the underlying investments."

Look at the arrest of hedge fund manager Raj Rajaratnam, who will be going to jail for insider trading that netted him $20 million. He is worth $1.3 billion. So, for most people in this country, that we be the equivalent of going to jail for about $300. But this is the largest arrest for insider trading in U.S. history. C'mon!
It's interesting to see people like Weidner and Dylan Ratigan, so entrenched in the MSM, voicing their disgust recently over the current financial system. Disgusted by news such as Geithner's non-appointed trustees reaping million dollar consulting bonuses. No, we truly do not have a chance in this game.

But the bubble-blowing machine has its hamsters running at full speed. Oil hit $80/barrel yesterday, gold at almost $1070, and the dollar plummeting. Einhorn, one of our favorites here who predicted the Lehman collapse, is also waiting for the impending dollar collapse. Aside from hoarding gold, he loaded up long-term Japanese interest rate options with a 4-5 year window. So that's Itulip, Paulson, and Einhorn who are now waiting for the next collapse. I'll side with these guys.

Good thing I didn't post new picks for the weekend. Suffice it to say Donovan Mcnabb's championship game-like performance would have been a bad call.



Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Gold and Golden

My apologies on my lack of blogotivity lately, but I have been updating both my investments and picks, which, more importantly than my analysis of the current shenanigans we call "the market" and "our government," have been right on point.

Gold has just hit it's all-time high of $1064 and our calls rolled to 2011 on GLD are up 40% in just over 2 weeks. The gross mismatches and lack of parody have been our NFL friends this year as blowouts have become commonplace. Teasing the Colts with the list I gave you last week led to an 8-2 week, with even a few college games coming through. The Texans came back from 21 points just like SD the week before to give us nice teaser-covers.

I promise more in the immediate future, just caught right now between old job and new with obligations to both for a few more weeks. But in celebration of football season and our new friend at The BBB, "The Mixx," check out his blog in our new list to the right at:


Til' next time, when The BBB should have a big announcement in the next few weeks!

Friday, October 2, 2009

Jobless Non-Recovery

The stimulus is over. Job losses are back on the rise. And did anyone see car sales numbers for last month post clunker incentives? Ugly. Make no mistake about what this "recovery" has been about. Government infusions of capital. Without it every major industry would still be gasping for air. Even with it there are just too many holes in the dike to plug. The markets have had very little to do with economic reality for quite some time. We'll see if this week is an acknowledgement of that gap, or just a blip of consciousness prior to a coma relapse.

If the dam does burst, it will be interesting to note whether or not the gold rally unpegs to the market rally and resources pile into gold hoarding. We'll see if lack of bank reform coupled with new proposals to raise FHA down payment requirements will stir the ire of the jobless. It's great that 30-year mortgages are at all-time lows while nobody qualifies to get one except those being propped up by already delinquent FHA programs. Loan reserves are already at less than 2% of loans insured. Great. Combine that with a 128% increase in strategic defaults, homeowners just opting not to pay their mortgages as penalties become lax and the sheer inventory of foreclosures makes it virtually impossible to do anything about it. Think the housing crisis will get resolved anytime soon with the largest amount of ARM resets still to come next year?

If you have any doubts as to whether or not your government has any interest in your well being, look at the Vanity Fair article detailing the multiple scenarios in which GS officially took over the world, or was at least handed the rest of the banking industry on a platter. Someone had to remind Paulson that he used to run GS, and that the head of the Treasury couldn't set up a deal between his former firm and a distressed bank.

1-1 again last week, this is getting repetitive. Gonna stick with big losers and winners this week. Like the Bengals over the hapless Browns, Giants at KC and Colts against Seattle.