Thursday, January 24, 2008

Bubble Boy

Unbelievable. I'd like to run a company where I post a 95% decrease in earnings and my stock goes up 20%. I'd like to run a company that is so abysmal that my stock goes up because I'm now a takeover candidate. Does this remind anyone of the tech bounces of 2000, 2001, or 2002? We heard over and over again that companies were a bargain because their prices had been halved. Not unlike these banks, those companies didn't have any money either. As the dollar continues to plummet and our rates go down, who's going to seek yields from our banks? No one. As other countries suffer from their misguided debt purchases, there isn't going to be anyone to bail us out. So go ahead Bernanke, lower rates to boost the market for a week or two. I'm staying short on these horrible companies, and have the rest of the year at least to play it out.

And homebuilders.....Jesus. These companies have no hope, that's NO hope, of selling a house in the next 3 years. But hey, they own some land that they purchased for 4X today's value, so don't forget to include that in evaluating their "book value."

I do think, not unlike our tech bubble, that eventually some good companies will resurface at WalMart prices. Apple was $13, Microsoft was $16. But not today. And not tomorrow. And not until we know the full extent of the writeoffs and the recesses of this economy should you think about going long. With that said, I bought QID (2X inverse Nasdaq) on the gain yesterday and XLY puts as previously mentioned.

Back to our last football game of the season, arrrrrghhhhh. Coach of the week honors has to go to Mike McCarthy for letting the Giants run a scrimmage against their team. That was nice of him to let Plax Burress catch all those 10 yard passes against single coverage. You would've thought after the first 15 or 16 catches that he might have given Al Harris some help, but not my man, Mike. He stayed loyal to the bitter end.

The Giants are gross. But how gross, I don't know. I feel like with 2 weeks to prepare, Belichick will destroy Manning, as he has his brother on many occasions. But the Pats are failing to cover double-digit lines consistently. However, given the opportunity in the last game, the Pats will put up 50 if possible. With that said, I actually like the under in this game. 53.5 is a lot of points, even given the high output in the first meeting. The Pats played really conservatively on defense, and they've shown if teams are going to drop 8 guys, they'll just run Maroney down your grill. The Giants have been running the ball well also, and aren't afraid to chew some clock. Like everyone else's strategy, they will try to minimize Pats' possessions.

I'm getting sad just writing this. We are less than 2 weeks away from that dreary time of year where only basketball and hockey are on. Sportscenter becomes unwatchable. However, we're only 2 months away from March Madness, where my alma mater Pitt will choke against a double-digit seed in the second round after having an 18-hour layover in the airport.

IOD: QID
BOD: SB under 53.5
Task of the Day: Write to an author

4 comments:

I-dawgg said...

It's actually enjoyable after the Super Bowl to watch basketball continuously! You gotta love March Madness and february, where you drink lots of water in preparation for March madness.

AX said...

Is it one g or 2 i-dawgg? We'll always have Windsor....Anyway, if by water you mean vodka tonics, I'm with ya. Go Cavs!

S-Diddy said...

Rock,

You crazy if you think the Giants are gonna post 5 points. They won't make it past 3.

Godziwa bat forth.

AX said...

S-dids, thanks for the post. Pats, while the best team ever, are only 2-6 against the spread last 8, and if Giants only score
3, will fit right in with my under prediction. Don't think I didn't bet Bradley against Wichita St. and cover easily last night, cause I did. Listen, I don't care how much you've had to drink, you're welcome to post anytime but you cannot fly.