Wednesday, January 9, 2008


Let me begin with a quick note. Since I don't know how to archive my insightful picks and tasks of the day in the sidebar, I will begin leaving them at the bottom of the posts for that day so we can later look back and see what a genius I am, without me saying, "remember in 07' when I recod Countrywide's destruction?" This way, my winners and losers will be documented.....

Have you not heeded my advice yet? Countrywide's impending demise, along with poor commentary regarding the future of mortgage bond insurers, led to huge selling yesterday. Furthermore, there was rumor that even local gov't bonds might default in the Vegas market, which put pressure on the big boys such as Bear Stearns and Goldman. Still waiting for that bounce in financials and homebuilding? Good luck. I'd take a hard look at your funds, anything holding the major financials and construction support stocks like HD should be pared down quickly, before you find them at pre 2003 levels.

SRS blew up almost 9% yesterday. Double the inverse return, that's like buying a put without having to pay for it. Up almost 25% since I first recod. How's about Capital One? Down almost 8% yesterday, your Jan 09 55s or 50s already earned you a 10-12% gain had you bought on the 4th or 7th. XLF, it's never too late. The top 2 holdings are still Bank of America and Citigroup, and will continue to get killed. Check out the new must read link, Doug Kass's 20 surprises for 08', seems to agree with a lot of what I've said....

As far as football, went 2-1 this weekend, with Seattle and the Pitt/Jack over covering easily. Unfortunately, my pick of the week failed us as TB jumped out 7-0 and forced the Giants to go 3-and-out on their first 3 possessions, only to then revert back to a 1930s style offense and allow 24 unanswered points. Fear not, mismatches abound this weekend. Jacksonville doesn't scare me, but 13 points do. I prefer the Pack at home-8 and the Colts at home -9. Did anyone watch that Tenn/SD game? Anyone who still thinks "defense and a good running game wins championships" is an idiot. If you can't put up points, Dallas, GB, NE and Indy will KILL YOU.
I look for Rivers to stink it up once the Chargers fall behind and play like the non-Drew Brees that he is. I'm only hoping my Brownies don't make the same mistake by letting Anderson go and keeping Quinn.

To recap:
Investment of the Day previous picks: XLF, SRS, COF, PXJ
Bet of the Day previous picks: UF (L), Pats (L), TB (L), SD (W), GB (L), Tenn (W), SD (W)
Task of the Day: Do more, watch less, Rent Chan Wook Park's Revenge Trilogy, Read I am Legend, Read James B. Stewart

Today's Ideas:
IOD: Still love COF Jan 09' 55s and 50s, so leaving it up
BOD: GB -8, Indy -9
TOD: Check out Covers.Com

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