Wednesday, January 16, 2008


Did we say $8 billion? We meant $18 billion. Did we say "limited exposure"? We meant full exposure. Does anybody get it yet? Banker=Liar. Reading the comments of these CEOs from Citi and JPM are hilarious. We continue to feel the impact of our loan portfolio and the weakening consumer markets. But, I thought you were still going to be profitable this quarter? Oh, wait, earnings were down 34% JPM! Who could've seen that coming, I mean, you guys are usually so transparent with your guidance.

This thing has no floor on it. The next 3 weeks will be the best time in my portfolio's history. But how can that be? The "smart money" from the sovereign trusts are pouring in to help. These sheiks must know something that we don't. Yes, they know that when you have $200 billion dollars, giving $5 to Citi doesn't mean a whole lot. As my brother likes to point out, anyone who uses the phrase smart money should be avoided like SARS as a financial advisor. Despite assertions from the bullish genii who everyday tell you there are good times ahead (See Jim Cramer, any day) and that financials are finding a bottom, the numbers say otherwise. I guess these guys are right in a way, I mean, 0 is a bottom.

As I said before, the commercial real estate market is next. SRS was up another 7% yesterday and at double the inverse return of the commercial real estate index, get your money in now.

I look for the retailers to tank next as well and drown throughout the year as things get worse. Let's short RTH, the retail index with holding like Home Depot and Walgreen's. Thinking even longer term, it's not too early to think about shorting gold futures or indexes, although there's still got to be some room to run given the weak dollar. We don't want to wait for the fallback though.

Getting back to football, I have high confidence in the Pack this weekend. Favre is giddy even without his Vicodin that they get another home game instead of travelling to Dallas where he is 0-9 lifetime. The Pack play tight man-to-man coverage, and even though Charles Woodson is the most overrated player since Emmitt Smith, they'll challenge little Manning on every play. Plus, it's going to be 4 degrees. Play the Pack before the line moves to 7 1/2.

The Pats are giving 14 again, and even though they'll lead these big-mouthed, never done anything buffoons to slaughter, they haven't been as concerned lately with covering the number as just controlling the game. They are just 2-5 ATS lately, all big spreads of course. I would leave this game alone, except maybe going over 47.5 if the weather looks passable.

IOD: RTH and XLY puts
BOD: Packers -7
TOD: Research BFS


jason said...

5:30am? with all your investment research, nurturing the chirren, stitching up whiny brats and handicapping foosball picks, when do you sleep? apparently not at 5:30 when I am even asleep. (i would have underlined the "i" if i could have...this comment should suffice)

anyway, i'm sure you were elated to look at the bottom of your posting and see a little "1" next to the comments section instead of the goose egg you're used to seeing.

interesting posts...although, being that i am a broke bastard, investment strategy is a little too esoteric for my tastes. i'll stick to blowing all my money on bad picks with delusions of hitting an 11 team 10$ parlay.

damn...i'm a loser.

on your picks...i got pack -6.5, over in the pats game.
you're right about picking the pats at -13.5...its a damn large number but its too difficult to bet against them. especially with a beat up sd team (no philip rivers,injured lt)
they'll prob hit it...maybe i'll tease it in a 4 team parlay...with the ridiculously cold weather an under on the pack might be in order...although that is also difficult to do - the total has gone over in 7 of GB last 8...even the frigid chicago game went over.

i already have gb -6.5 (bought 1/2 point), over 42, and pats -13.5 (bought 1/2 point) over 47.5 in a four team parlay for shites and giggles...

great post jason...make a statement in one direction and talk about how you already have a bet in the other. way to inspire confidence in your picks.

will talk more later...

jason said...

oh. your posting clock is off. ok. scratch the first paragraph then.

jason said...

how often do you check your site? 3-4 times a day? "...please please let someone have posted...cmon cmon cmon...DAMN. no comments. oh well, i guess i'll check back in 15 min...maybe someone stumbled upon it while looking for real investment help."


Anonymous said...

Who is this Jason guy? What advice do you have? I would love to see it so I could do the opposite.

Anyway Ax, great post on Citi and JPM. It was hilarious. Let me know what you think of Altria (MO). Thanks.

AX said...

Thanks for the effort, Jason. Nice work getting the Pack under 7. Most of the Pats games this year have cleared 50, so the over might not be a bad play, but with 20-25 mph winds, Brady might be hindered a little.

I wonder how much cash you've squandered over the course of the year. Perhaps a well-placed put such as SRS when it was $108 3 weeks ago, now $140, would have paid off better. Hey, 30% is 30%.

AX said...

Sac, err....anonymous, don't be jealous just caus there are now at least 3 readers of this blog. As my strategies have returned 30-50% depending on the reco in all but 1 case over the last 4 weeks, help yourself to do the opposite. This will ensure that you lose an equivalent amount.

MO holds about as much interest for me as GE. Hold on to it for another 50 years, maybe it will double. It's very safe, good dividend, might get some scared money over the course of the next 18 months.

Anonymous said...

It is all about the DIVIDEND!! I also agree with your strategy of betting against the banks,financials, and real estate sectors. All I have to do is drive around the block to see how many future FORECLOSURES there are going to be. With that being said if you are going to take risks w/options you should have some safety net stocks such as MO. Just a thought.