Monday, November 16, 2009

Just Wait

With bubbles on everyone's mind from Markman to Fleckenstein to former Fed officials this past week, I can only recommend sitting on your pile until this thing blows up. The Fed has been trumpeting strong dollar policy while the greenback plunges to lows on a daily basis, bolstered by Fed minutes that read, "No way in hell are we going to raise rates anytime soon." Every day the market goes up buys these guys another day of hope that our service economy will magically return to 2006.

As Fleckenstein points out, whether it's Greenspan or the current oligarchy, the false belief that jumping from one bubble to another to prevent a severe economic crash has been disastrous for our country and how our financial system is allowed to operate. While your asthmatic child was waiting to receive their H1N1 vaccination, the boys at GS were loaded up so they could continue to make trades with stop losses at $200 million.....

Thanks to The Mixx for his call on 3Com more than a year ago as a company too cash rich to go under. Now with their tender offer from HP, they've risen from just over $1 to near $8.

How low can the dollar go before someone pulls the plug on our devaluation? I don't know, but with gold over $1,130 as I write, fear the sudden stop.

Thankfully for you, I have been remiss in posting my recent picks, although Monday night has treated us well. Steelers for an easy win last week and if the Ravens can't save their season against the once again Quinn-led Browns, they are truly dreadful.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

What Do We Do Now?

Sorry for the recent absence, had something ready to go but shelved it for a more appropriate time. What do we do? Nothing. Nothing than what I've already told you, gold and oil and avoid stocks that cost more than $5. Up 200 Thursday, down 200 Friday. Up and down 100 yesterday and back up again. Any stock picking at this point is pure speculation. But with gold near $1100 today, having bounced back very rapidly from a brief plunge to near $1000 again, it's far from done. Every time someone has tried to call a top in the gold market for the last 10 years they've been left for a fool by year's end. Itulip certainly thinks there's hundreds, if not thousands of dollars left to go. They also think that the dollar is being shorted against oil, not other currencies, as the most recent government incarnation for dollar destruction.

Shorting and going long look expensive to year's end. Could we crash in the next 2 months? Sure. Could we get a string of bogus Buffettisms pushing us up over that time too? Sure. Hang on tight to your cash, unless you'd like to look way long into some commodities, silver and copper included here.

Wish the crystal ball was less cloudy, but I remain unconvinced about this market in either direction near term. Long-term we will tank again, but unless we can put a 3-6 month range on it, our money will be lost.