Monday, February 25, 2008

"Horror Show"

Can't take credit for this excellent title that Nat Worden of TheStreet.com has given to the projected earnings and economic data due out this week. Still feeling queasy from the Ambac 200 point reversal on Friday, I felt a bit more fortified this morning as Lowe's earned $300 million less than analysts expected and 1st quarter and full-year estimates were well below expectations. Yet another signs that these jokers refuse to acknowledge our credit crisis and refuse to lower forecasts until after the fact. Also, as it typical of our irrational bull-machine, the report from Charlie Gasparino that led to the rally had 2 parts, the second half of which was ignored. He mentioned that MBIA's reinsurer, Channel RE, got downgraded. I'd love the bitttersweetness if Ambac somehow manages to save its AAA rating only in time for MBIA to get whacked down to AA or even A in its arrogance!

Just to update our current impending disaster state along with that of our fellow European neighbors, read the attached links below. The first article from the Washington Post details that people's home loan lines of credit have been abruptly cut off. People depending on those lines to pay off higher debt, to run their small businesses, to pay tuition, are out of luck and they'll have to pay off sooner than expected. In the article from the Telegraph, we learn that England will have a similar blowup scenario to our overbuilt condo problem in areas like Miami, with 12% occupancy rates, no hall lighting, no promised amenities, etc. They went crazy on flats, and now these building are ghost towns. Finally, D.B. Zwirn & Co. is closing 2 of its hedge funds after investors lost confidence secondary to fraudulent practices from the manager. Different from funds blowing up due to subprime exposure, this isn't any better, but more of the same from these guys who continue to try to make money out of thin air.

I'll post later with my NFL combine report......good to talk some foosball again!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202987_pf.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/02/21/cmbtl21.xml

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/22/news/companies/zwirn_closes.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008022214#

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ax, can you please get back to FOOTBALL!!! The 4 of us on this site really want to hear your thoughts on the potential rookies.

thedealsleuth said...

In hindsight, D.B. Zwirn's problems can explain the problems David Bergstein had closing the Image Entertainment acquisition, for which Zwirn was to provide the funding:
http://thedealsleuth.wordpress.com/2008/01/28/image-entertainment-is-yet-another-busted-buyout/

AX said...

Thanks for the insight, sleuth. What are your thoughts on projected shortfall of M&A this year?