Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Easy Money

Yeah, if you were my offshore account last weekend. Yikes, I think the Pack and Texans lost by the most combined points ever for 2 recommended games, sound advice. I was dead on when I suggested the Texans would cover after the Colts pulled their starters, and feeling good when they quickly jumped out to a 7-0 lead. The Colts did pull their starters......after scoring 38 unanswered points.

As for my analysis of Favre and his cold weather conquering abilities, well, he threw for 9 yards in the first half. He would later whine like a little girl and say that those were the worst conditions he ever played in. Somehow Kyle Orton, who obviously read this on Friday and went out to spite me, hit 8-14 for over 100 yards. I did save a little face Monday night with San Diego, who I also teased with the Gators of course going forward.

P.S. After sewing little faces and feet all day yesterday, removing Q-tips from ears and metal from eyeballs, I can only ask this as a naive Jew. When did it become a Christmas tradition to open gifts and then go to the ER?

One more thing. If you bought your kid a trampoline, go-cart, or Heely shoes, or let your kid use the family pet as a horse, or let them run outside without shoes on, your parenting card should be revoked immediately. I'll see your kid in the ER with a broken wrist/ankle/foot next week!

2 comments:

maxler said...

Well written and funny. thanks for the read.

quick question. how do you view gambling on sports vs investing in the stock market. viable alternative?

AX said...

Thanks. A short answer to your question is this. I view investing as a means of shaving 10-15 years off of my working years; I view sports gambling as a means of entertainment on the weekend with the possibility of providing some extra disposable income.

A longer version is this. Oddsmakers are not dummies. You need to win about 58%+ of your bets to be successful at gambling, while preferably betting more in the most favorable situations. Winning bets also net you only 10/11, not even money. There are plenty of guys who make a decent wage as professionals, but it's a full-time job where bets are spread out over several offshore services and casinos. Like sitting down at the blackjack table with $500 and betting $50 a hand, most bettors bet way too high a percentage of their bankroll and quickly exhaust their funds. When you lose a bet, you lose 100%.

Stocks are different. Even the higher risk options I provide are not all-or-nothing propositions. You may lose 25% in 2 stocks, but gain 200% in a third. You don't have to be right even half the time, let alone 58%. Multiple studies have shown that the individual investor will outshine "the professionals" simply by buying indexed mutual funds over time. These guys have personal biases based on industry/employer that the individual investor/professional gambler does not have. While providing the opportunity to double your money over the course of a 3 hour football game is very exciting, the thrill of watching the ticker on a well-researched stock quadruple your money over 3 months is even more so.