Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Easy Money

Yeah, if you were my offshore account last weekend. Yikes, I think the Pack and Texans lost by the most combined points ever for 2 recommended games, sound advice. I was dead on when I suggested the Texans would cover after the Colts pulled their starters, and feeling good when they quickly jumped out to a 7-0 lead. The Colts did pull their starters......after scoring 38 unanswered points.

As for my analysis of Favre and his cold weather conquering abilities, well, he threw for 9 yards in the first half. He would later whine like a little girl and say that those were the worst conditions he ever played in. Somehow Kyle Orton, who obviously read this on Friday and went out to spite me, hit 8-14 for over 100 yards. I did save a little face Monday night with San Diego, who I also teased with the Gators of course going forward.

P.S. After sewing little faces and feet all day yesterday, removing Q-tips from ears and metal from eyeballs, I can only ask this as a naive Jew. When did it become a Christmas tradition to open gifts and then go to the ER?

One more thing. If you bought your kid a trampoline, go-cart, or Heely shoes, or let your kid use the family pet as a horse, or let them run outside without shoes on, your parenting card should be revoked immediately. I'll see your kid in the ER with a broken wrist/ankle/foot next week!


maxler said...

Well written and funny. thanks for the read.

quick question. how do you view gambling on sports vs investing in the stock market. viable alternative?

AX said...

Thanks. A short answer to your question is this. I view investing as a means of shaving 10-15 years off of my working years; I view sports gambling as a means of entertainment on the weekend with the possibility of providing some extra disposable income.

A longer version is this. Oddsmakers are not dummies. You need to win about 58%+ of your bets to be successful at gambling, while preferably betting more in the most favorable situations. Winning bets also net you only 10/11, not even money. There are plenty of guys who make a decent wage as professionals, but it's a full-time job where bets are spread out over several offshore services and casinos. Like sitting down at the blackjack table with $500 and betting $50 a hand, most bettors bet way too high a percentage of their bankroll and quickly exhaust their funds. When you lose a bet, you lose 100%.

Stocks are different. Even the higher risk options I provide are not all-or-nothing propositions. You may lose 25% in 2 stocks, but gain 200% in a third. You don't have to be right even half the time, let alone 58%. Multiple studies have shown that the individual investor will outshine "the professionals" simply by buying indexed mutual funds over time. These guys have personal biases based on industry/employer that the individual investor/professional gambler does not have. While providing the opportunity to double your money over the course of a 3 hour football game is very exciting, the thrill of watching the ticker on a well-researched stock quadruple your money over 3 months is even more so.