Tuesday, November 3, 2009

What Do We Do Now?

Sorry for the recent absence, had something ready to go but shelved it for a more appropriate time. What do we do? Nothing. Nothing than what I've already told you, gold and oil and avoid stocks that cost more than $5. Up 200 Thursday, down 200 Friday. Up and down 100 yesterday and back up again. Any stock picking at this point is pure speculation. But with gold near $1100 today, having bounced back very rapidly from a brief plunge to near $1000 again, it's far from done. Every time someone has tried to call a top in the gold market for the last 10 years they've been left for a fool by year's end. Itulip certainly thinks there's hundreds, if not thousands of dollars left to go. They also think that the dollar is being shorted against oil, not other currencies, as the most recent government incarnation for dollar destruction.

Shorting and going long look expensive to year's end. Could we crash in the next 2 months? Sure. Could we get a string of bogus Buffettisms pushing us up over that time too? Sure. Hang on tight to your cash, unless you'd like to look way long into some commodities, silver and copper included here.

Wish the crystal ball was less cloudy, but I remain unconvinced about this market in either direction near term. Long-term we will tank again, but unless we can put a 3-6 month range on it, our money will be lost.

3 comments:

Tiger Coach said...

Ax... Strange days indeed... If I were Dr. DooLittle, I would say the economy is a lot like a Push-Me- Pull-You... really not knowing which way to go. I counted on a more parcipated drop in the market pre-election... However, Buffet's arrival on the white stallion saved the day... I remember the last time he rode in, there was a sharp drop... yet a trun-around where he made money in the long-run.


The Fed will be forced to makea move on interest rates... oil and metals will be forced to surrender some of their games... the spector of inflation looms in the dark. Yet, any move will kill an already feeble housing market...

Interesting though... the weak dollar may send Europe back into Recession Land before they ever offically leave.... Teh real question maybe how to shake the Chinese Yuan... currently pegged to teh U.S. Dollar.... What would the esteemed Representative from Texas Ron Paul say?

AX said...

There will come a time after the next crash when Paul and Kucinich and maybe even Grayson have given up, when we'll look back on these guys and say, hey, they were right 10 years ago. But while GS and Timmy continue to pull all the strings, anything is fair game. Rates will remain low for a while yet, jobs are still being lost.

The Mixx said...

Now we know that the Fed will leave rates at rock bottom. And yet banks won't lend. Instead, they'll give the essentially free money to their trading desks to make risky bets or invest overseas.