Thursday, January 1, 2009

Happy New Year!

A few observations, including some going back to our initial sports roots.

1. The coach of Cincinnati, Brian Kelly, looks just like Sam Kinison. When he yells at his players all I can imagine is "Say it, Say it!"

2. LaDainian Tomlinson is overrated for 2 reasons:
a. His former backup, Michael Turner, went to a crappy Falcons team and ran for 1,700 yards and 50 TDs.
b. Darren Sproles, his current backup who is 5'4" and weighs 150 pounds, scored on a line plunge from the 4 yard line the other day. That means your line is pretty good.

3. Pete Carroll obviously has some respect for Paterno because USC could have won that game by 100 points. Big 10 bad.

4. Chargers always play the Colts tough. Be careful with all road favs this weekend. But not too careful. I'll be shocked if the Ravens or Eagles lose.

5. When you blow people up and then run away, those people will in turn look to blow you up. Even if you are hiding in an apartment building basement (a little off topic, I'll admit).

Things we'll be watching for the next few weeks or months:

1. Even if you think there will a bounce this year (crazy talk), crappy businesses will continue to nosedive. I don't see how newspapers can make it. As Bloomberg outlined this week, Gannett and the NY Times managed to issue loads of debt to buy back shares at astronomical prices the last few years and now the bill is due. Only National City was as egregious in their buybacks....

2. Once the rockets in the Middle East quiet down, oil will take another plunge. Time to buy for the long-term. USO out to 2011, will add more ways to play shortly.

3. Retail won't make it. Too many overlapping stores and no credit to burn anymore. A bunch of malls and stores will just have to shut down.

4. Gold cracking $1k again this year.

Bueno Suerte!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atrl.3afAcWA

1 comment:

Tiger Coach said...

Ax...
One question I have is if the market has already factored in Obama's stimulus package? My belief is that it will put about 4 K in the average American's pocket...This may explain MCRI's footing...

The Middle East will probably be Obama's first international test. Hopefully, we will prove to be as great a friend to Israel as Bush was...

As far as GLD... The report I sent you said GLD will not hit above 1600... that is still a 60 % increase from here. I will look for a low 80's entry point...

Let's keep looking for a way to short T Bills.. too much money in there with little interest...

Same theme we should look at other debt ridden countires that do not have teh same leverage as the United States: XRU, FXM, FXB, FXA puts...or for Latin American flavor EA, ILF, EFB, EWZ, ILF, BZF, EWW, deserve a bit of our attention... on the downside.... if we think world markets will continue to struggle....