Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Moe, Larry, and Nardelli

The Big 3. Center stage for all to see today and these clowns failed miserably. Grilled by Congress today as to what in the world $25 billion in loans will do other than rob the American taxpayer, Wagoner of GM was flustered to a stutter and Ford's chief, Mulally, came off as a smug bastard, even taking the time to plug his fuel efficient and highest quality autos. Jackass, your stock is trading at $1, the same as your IPO 50 years ago. You want to wipe the smirk off your face? The only guy who seemed mildly troubled on the panel was Nardelli, Chrysler's chief, who seemed to be willing to take whatever medicine Congress had to offer. Although he too had no answers when asked if he managed to fly by private jet to and from the hearings in an effort to "cut costs." Didn't look very good for these guys.

We've been talking about homeruns all year and now we have a couple more. Trying to walk the line between good greed and belief in armageddon, I cashed out on WSM, CAKE, and DRI for 200% gains over the last 2 days. Unfortunately, this was done before the end of day today, where I believe an additional 25% could've been added to that total. Throw SKS in for an additional 300% gain along with SRS's rise of $50 today, and we're having a pretty good week.
Some of our readers like Tiger Coach have shown even more courage in holding our recos such as Vornado and are sitting on huge gains.

We are holding out on BBW because I not only believe it will go to zero, but I was only able to fill enough contracts to make that a worthwhile exit point. It's down to $3 today. We are also holding on to RYL 4/09 $10s and $15s, because unless there's a homebuilder bailout, not being able to rollover debt is going to make for some bankruptcies.

I bought Citi yesterday without options believe it or not and was promptly rewarded with its largest price drop in history. This concerns me only a little for as I've privately written to several of you, if Citi is allowed to collapse, then gold might be worth $2,500/ounce at which point I don't care about any of my other holdings. Speaking of gold, I've now read several articles arguing that physical gold is going for close to $1K/ounce despite its paper price. "Funds who would like to keep their asset of last resort are being forced to sell," said Peter Spina, an analyst at "This is causing weakness in the paper gold market price, but it is not a true reflection of the physical market."

This market isn't done yet. We might benefit from another run up to 9K to short again. I've had an itchy trigger finger on Ethan Allen for months but have not found pricing I've liked in this volatile market. Any armageddon/out-of-the-money suggestions are welcome.


Tiger Coach said...

Ax... I would think another round of cover letters are due to some of the brokerage houses... Your bragging rights and profits of well over 200% should be enough to tweak their noses.

We could well see a big bounce tomorrow on "technical" buying... and I would lose my "high water mark" performance. VNO, SPG, RYL, WYNN, CNK, and FXI could well be on their way to the Davey Jonesa Locker... Still I will look for an exit point, as I am sure the rally caps will be on some time tomorrow...if not by Friday. Keep me posted on eth... we should probably wait for the jump to short it!!!

I would much rather have calls than puts... I so desperately wish things would turn around in the market, but I am convinced that we will see a 5k bottom...sooner than later...

AX said...

I'm happy to make some money either way, but yes, wish it was shooting fish out of the call barrel instead of the puts. BAC at $13 for 1/11 is getting mighty interestng, TGT at $26 for 1/11s as well. You were right on that one.