Friday, April 11, 2008

Options

Following on a theme from yesterday, I'd like to list some of the alt energy/ag boom stocks of the past year or so to evaluate for potential bubbling. Please feel free to add any I've missed:

CompanyCurrent$52-wk low52-week high P/E 3-year low

First Solar $270 $54 $290 133 $28
Flowserve $106 $57 $118 24 $27
Monsanto 123 56 129 40 28
Potash 179 57 179 53 24
Dupont 50 41 53 15 39
Mosaic 123 27 125 37 13
Syngenta 61 34 62 26 20
MEMC 73 49 96 21 10
Trina 37 26 73 24 16
Solarfun 15 8 40 35 9
Yingli Green 20 10 40 62 10
JA Solar 21 6 25 53 6
Sun Power 87 50 165 861 28
Suntech 45 28 90 48 28
Canadian Solar 24 6 31 neg 6
LDK 33 20 76 23 19

Furthermore, in comparing XHB components to what I think are the top 3 positioned builder(cash/limited land exposure) stocks, Toll, NVR, and MDC, we'll see that you'll pay to avoid having losers like Lennar, Centex, and Standard Pacific attached:

Company Jan 10' Calls

XHB $22 15s 9.30-9.80
MDC $42 40s 11.20-12.10
30s 16.70-17.90
Toll $22 15s 10.20-11.10

NVR $639 has no options

5 comments:

Tiger Coach said...

AX...

I like your "ahead" of the curve thinking here.

I have somewhere in the area of a half dozen of these companies that are on the board...A couple of others that are into oil exploration... I will be sure to make up a list to follow...and share whatever I get.

Laugh if you will, by I am certain "green energies" will be contingent upon the November election as well... Regardless, I think it is a good idea to develop some sort of baseline.

The Bank of Nova Scotia is now looking at NCC... No one wants to pay more than 5 or 6 for NCC. Great Article in the PD yesterday and today.

BD

AX said...

TC, actually didn't include any of the shale companies but referenced them in my post 2 days ago from the Markman article. Might be getting late as Marketwatch has a big feature on it as well this weekend. Any stocks you'd like to add to the bubble list?

Tiger Coach said...

AX...I hope you do not mind if I expanded the possibilities of BUBBLES to three or four industries sectors:

I went with transportation, chemicals and equipment, and metals.

Please note that the + is a positive outlook - in negative.
To coin a phrase, several are reaching the stage of "irrational exuberance"...remember IOmega?

Send let's mull over and digest these...maybe come up with a list of 10 possibilities...

Hertz HTZ -
Ryder R -
TRA Terra Industries -
IFF International Fragrences and Flavor -
JOYG Coal Mining Equipment -
LZ Lubrizol +
VHI -
CF Appears to be losing momentum -
EDEN +
CLF (Will drop after split) -
CHBU China Agri Business (Gamble…+)
CF – Appears to losing Momentum –
GNI Cut Dividend by .90 –
MTL+
X-

Tiger Coach said...

P.S. No Country for Old Men...odd, yes...entertaining, yes.... 8 on a scale of 10 being the best... Unfortunately if we are fed a diet of garbage from Hollywood movies like this appear better than they really are. Downey Jr. played the role well...a bit burned out, go figure.

AX said...

Might have the wrong actor, TC, Downey wasn't in NCFOM.