tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6352945028936683227.post1391147982673865078..comments2014-08-22T23:51:53.169-07:00Comments on THE BIG BIG BET: F(orget)A(bout)R(eceiving)C(ompensation)E(ver)AXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03884523657411376448noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6352945028936683227.post-85586243700236857652008-11-19T14:20:00.000-08:002008-11-19T14:20:00.000-08:00DC, nope. Not crazy on any front. Despite his in...DC, nope. Not crazy on any front. Despite his insistence to the contrary, Bernanke and Paulson seem to be translating the Japanese playbook for a 15 year recession very well. As far as a floor, you know what I think of technical analysis. 7K? Sure, why not? I bought Citi yesterday on 2 assumptions. 1, it can't go much lower than $6 because it is too big to fail and even banks that did fail like Wachovia, are still trading around $5 (citi crashed to $6 today) and 2, if it does fail, then we're at armageddon and that means my gold will be worth so much I won't give a crap! Thanks as always, working on new post right now.AXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03884523657411376448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6352945028936683227.post-69239568741797942532008-11-19T13:42:00.000-08:002008-11-19T13:42:00.000-08:00Hello Ax!Talk about utter destruction in the marke...Hello Ax!<BR/><BR/>Talk about utter destruction in the market today. I keep asking, "How much worse can it get?", but I don't see this "floor" that everyone talks about. 7K? That's not that far off when you think about it. 2 more days like today and we are there! <BR/><BR/>This reminds me of Japan in 1990's. Overinflated property values, stock market collapse, deflationary environment, government intervention in the banks, Fed rate getting closer to 0%. <BR/><BR/>Am I crazy?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6352945028936683227.post-57362431790995247842008-11-18T07:49:00.000-08:002008-11-18T07:49:00.000-08:00Yeah, I read that yesterday. Scary indeed! Makes...Yeah, I read that yesterday. Scary indeed! Makes me not want to buy even at $15....AXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03884523657411376448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6352945028936683227.post-59527914293062467462008-11-18T05:43:00.000-08:002008-11-18T05:43:00.000-08:00Hello Ax,Scary. The economy is getting downright ...Hello Ax,<BR/><BR/>Scary. The economy is getting downright frightening with the layoffs starting to hit mainstreet now. As for GE, I want you to check out this article by James Quinn who makes a great case against GE! Credit cards are getting smoked as they say the default rate is going up 10% next year!<BR/><BR/>http://seekingalpha.com/article/106445-general-electric-genuine-risk-of-collapseAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6352945028936683227.post-10453241483021070942008-11-16T07:55:00.000-08:002008-11-16T07:55:00.000-08:00Anon, agreed that total loss % with other funds ar...Anon, agreed that total loss % with other funds are similar to hedgies, but the sheer size of hedge funds makes these losses disastrous. On top of the 20-25% of the profits these funds keep in good times, clients are going to punish them hard.<BR/><BR/>I still think stocks are toxic. This week proved again that it can always get worse. But, Citi at $8 and change is probably a long term winner. If Wachovia failed and never went below $3, then I don't see how Citi goes much lower. Ditto BAC at $15 and possibly GE at $15 as well. Don't be fooled by any short-term bounces though as many were 2 weeks ago with the market near 10K again.AXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03884523657411376448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6352945028936683227.post-54090265167682711062008-11-16T06:01:00.000-08:002008-11-16T06:01:00.000-08:00Ax, Great article. I agree we should not bail out ...Ax, Great article. I agree we should not bail out these dying industries I have been saying this for for two years now! But, we will and the "Nanny State" keeps growing stronger. <BR/><BR/>In regards to the Housing industry I do think something has to be done. At the very least some people should be going to prison, others should actually get kicked out of their homes. I would love for them to put into action the plan I discussed with you but that will NEVER happen. <BR/><BR/>In regards to hedge funds, I agree they are getting killed but so are just about every other fund/stocks on the market. All of the gains they may have had in the past 5 years are getting wiped out. Other than shorts or options what type of rec do you have to make $ in this environment?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6352945028936683227.post-19414463121182563232008-11-15T07:05:00.000-08:002008-11-15T07:05:00.000-08:00Sure, TC. Most hedge funds only allow a few days ...Sure, TC. Most hedge funds only allow a few days a year in which you can withdraw money. On top of that, your request must be submitted 90 days or 45 days, depending on the fund's rules, prior to redemption. Given the horrible performance of these funds year to date with ever increasing poor performance, many funds are actually sitting on tons of requests to pay back money. In order to pay back shareholders, they have to liquidate holdings prior to the payback date at the end of the year, or by Jan. 1. This is why I think we've seen gold get battered short-term, when people like Jim Rogers, Eric Janszen, and Steve Forbes all say it should be trading in the 4 digits.AXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03884523657411376448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6352945028936683227.post-11880256223631196302008-11-14T20:57:00.000-08:002008-11-14T20:57:00.000-08:00Ax... Can you explain more about the redemption pe...Ax... Can you explain more about the redemption period?<BR/><BR/>It is disturbing how many analysts have already gone of the record calling bottom... I wish we had an All-start list... of where and when these market bottoms were called... maybe it deserves the attention of an entire website to be dedicated to that subject...<BR/><BR/>The real problem... I can't believe our government , Congress in particular is so gullible. After the Big BIG Bailout went through they are all sounding shocked that Treasury has "altered" their plan to "fix" things. I wonder if they still believe in the Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus, or the Easter Bunny?<BR/><BR/>Nice article!!!https://www.blogger.com/profile/04129109858371805563noreply@blogger.com